I spent time in the Florida Keys over the New Year holiday.

I spent time in the Florida Keys over the New Year holiday.

I’m not a fan of boats.

But I felt compelled to do 1 water activity.

While in Key West, I learned it had North America’s only coral reef.

This sounded interesting enough.

I booked a snorkeling tour.

On the tour day, 100 of us gathered on a boat.

We drove 1 hour to the reef.

But when we arrived, there was an issue.

Jellyfish.

Half of the boat never even got into the water.

I took my chances and jumped in.

The boat anchored a considerable distance from the reef.

I began swimming with the others.

Within a few strokes, I saw the jellyfish and maneuvered around them.

Others weren’t so lucky.

One by one, you could hear shrieks as people got stung.

The water was choppy.

I got halfway and was exhausted.

I looked towards the reef.

Only 5 people made it.

I contemplated.

Was the risk of getting stung worth the reward of seeing the reef?

As business leaders, we often face these types of risk/reward decisions.

Hire or fire.

Pursue a new business opportunity or pass.

Scale or moderate growth.

To help clarify the best path forward, I create a risk/reward profile.

1. What control do I have over the risk?

2. What are the possible scenarios with each decision?

3. What are the financial implications of each scenario?

4. What is the likelihood of each scenario?

With this snorkeling experience, I had little control.

Even with hypervigilance, the jellyfish were popping up out of nowhere.

I considered the various scenarios.

Swim to the reef and get stung.

Swim to the reef and avoid getting stung.

Swim back to the boat and still get stung.

Swim back to the boat and avoid getting stung.

I contemplated the reward of seeing the reef.

While interesting, it wasn’t an experience I valued highly.

Getting stung seemed likely.

Even those who made it to the reef got stung.

Ultimately, I decided to turn around.

I avoided the jellyfish and was content not seeing the reef.

We’re entering a new year in uncertain economic times.

We’ll face tough decisions.

Hustle culture preaches, “No risk, no reward.”

But I have a different perspective.

Never test the depth of the water with both feet.